Friday, June 27, 2008

Friday Afternoon Map Discussion

Hot and humid. That’s the weather for today. Mostly sunny skies will allow for 92-94 degrees for the high.That’s the weather now. How about this weekend?

12z NAM model valid at 4 pm Saturday:
(*Model maps courtesy wunderground.com*)


It looks like the front has increased in forward speed a little bit from yesterday’s models. The big low pressure over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/UP of Michigan border will drag down cooler air behind the front. It looks like we will not see much rain tomorrow afternoon, but with humidity in place and a lifting mechanism nearby (the front), expect summer pop-up storms to be more frequent.

12z NAM model valid at 1 am Sunday morning:


Showers and thunderstorms will weaken slightly overnight without daytime heating. Still, with the front moving into the Mid-South, showers and thundershowers will take place. One small note, the GFS is slightly slower with the frontal passage than the NAM. Does this mean Sunday will be a washout? No, but storms may hang around longer than the NAM would indicate.

12z NAM model valid 1 pm Sunday:


The front is moving into central Mississippi at this time. The GFS hangs the front back across north Mississippi. A slower solution would keep rain chances in our forecast through midday, while the faster solution the NAM currently has would clear things out by mid-morning.Early next week: Calm weather with slightly below average temperatures. We’ll be in a northwesterly flow aloft. If enough moisture returns, any ripple of energy in that flow could trigger scattered/isolated storms.

That’s all for now. Have a great weekend!

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