Wednesday Afternoon Map Discussion

Good afternoon once again weather geeks. We’re continuing with the hot and humid weather this afternoon. Mid 90s with heat index values nearing 100. It will be hot. But enough about the now? What about the rest of the week?

12z NAM model valid for 7 pm Thursday evening:

There are a few things to notice here. First, there is a surge of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico coming north that will help increase coverage of rain in the Southeast by the weekend. There is no tropical worries with this, just moisture pulled north from tropical waves not expected to develop. While not a drought-busting event, this could provide some very beneficial rains. Second, a complex of thunderstorms looks to be moving across Iowa, where it is NOT welcome. That complex will be a precursor to the third item of interest – the trough set to dig in across the eastern half of the nation. Elsewhere, the model shows the garden variety summer pop-up storms across the Southeast. Let’s move forward to the weekend.

Again the 12z NAM model valid at 7 pm Saturday evening:

Low pressure is centered over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/Canadian borders. The cold front stretches from Michigan to Texas. Ahead of that front showers and thunderstorms will develop and push eastward. That tropical moisture looks to be enhancing the activity over Alabama and points northward as it gets funneled up ahead of the front. Saturday will be our best chance of rain in the Mid-South. Beyond, the front does not bring a significant drop in temperatures but perhaps lower humidity values.

Crystal ball land: No graphics today. The 12z GFS has a dry Fourth of July. The long-range does indicate the Bermuda high anchoring in, which would lead to a southerly flow and isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Same place, same time, new post tomorrow.