Thursday Afternoon Map Discussion

I thought for today we would take a look at the progression of model runs valid for the same date and time and see how they change as new data comes in. Each model is valid at 7 pm Friday evening.

Let’s start with the 18z GFS from June 25:


This places the front from roughly Kansas City to Chicago, curving back into Canada. A lot of moisture is in place across the Southeast from the high pressure brining in a southerly flow. The heaviest rain looks be across central Alabama and the Kansas/Missouri border.

Now here’s the 0z GFS from June 26:


Its precipitation coverage is significantly less than the 18z run. It still has moisture present across much of the Southeast, but the heaviest rainfall now is over the Florida panhandle. The front is in the same area as the previous run.Now the 6z GFS from today:Again even less precipitation than the 0z run. The heaviest rain continue to remain along the Gulf Coast states. The front remains across the Midwest.

Finally, the 12z run from today:


A big bulls-eye of rain over the big bend in Florida. The front again sits in the same region. Scattered/isolated showers and thunderstorms will be expected around the Mid-South.

While we’re looking at models, check out the 12z run valid at 1 am Sunday morning:


A very strong complex of thunderstorms is ready to blast through the Mid-South, dumping up to 5 inches of rain. Now the GFS tends to overdo precipitation amounts, but at this point, severe weather potential needs to be monitored all along the front. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning appears to be our best chance at significant rain. Until then however, the pop-up summer storms are possible anywhere across the area.

The next update (hopefully) comes tomorrow afternoon.