Not much activity in and around the immediate metro area, but showers and thunderstorms are to our north and south. Expect more areas of development as the front works its way through the area, but storms should remain below severe limits.
How does Saturday look? Here's the 12z GFS model run depicting the weather for 1 p.m. Saturday:
This model run is trying to keep a fairly broad area of showers and thundershowers across West Tennessee. Based on the activity today, I do not see a widespread area of rain. Scattered rains will be the rule rather than exception. The ridge continues over the Southwest, and the trough in the Northeast. The passage of the cold front overnight into the morning will mainly result in slightly drier air. The Tennessee Valley and points east hope to receive a much-needed 0.75" to 1" of rain as the model indicates.
Peeking into the GFS crystal ball for a future forecast, here is the map of Friday morning, July 4:
If you believe this model, we're in store for the mother of all Fourth of July fireworks display with a massive thunderstorm complex about to blast into the area dumping 3-4" of rain. Take this with an entire shaker of salt. The crystal ball often is very foggy.
1 comment:
question...could this be around the time where the flooding up north gets to us? i know it all crystal balls...but could we have super heavy rain...and an incredibly high crest? does the pyramid float?
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