Monday Afternoon Map Discussion

Welcome back to the Mid-South Weather Blog. I apologize for the lack of posting yesterday, but when the weather is this nice, you have to take advantage of it. Today has been a bit on the cloudy side with some peaks of sunshine breaking through as a disturbance riding the jet stream moves through the area. Any rain was mostly limited to the northern parts of Arkansas and the areas along the Tennessee River. Still, with enough surface heating and old outflow boundaries meandering around, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible. Where are we going from here? Let's check out the models.

12z run of the GFS valid at 7 p.m. Tuesday evening:

The first thing to notice is the trough in the east lifting to the north and breaking down with a general westerly flow across the northern half of the country. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area (which is shoving those westerlies north). With this ridge in place, we can expect warmer weather with highs in the low to mid 90s through the week.

Here's a look at the surface map for this same time frame:

That ridge of high pressure is evident at the surface as well by the southerly winds bringing in moisture off the Gulf. While it may look like some rain is possible, it will be the isolated pop-up shower or storm - a staple of summer in the Mid-South. Expect this to continue through Friday.

Now let's take a look at the GFS 12z valid 7 p.m. Friday night:

Change may be on the horizon as the ridge begins to break down, and a trough and associated cold front begin to drop through the Midwest. This is the best chance at widespread rain for the area as the front moves southeast. This is four to five days out, so timing will certainly will be an issue, but it looks the weekend could be wet some of the time.

Now for a quick peek into the GFS crystal ball for Friday morning, July 4:

A big trough anchored over the eastern half of the U.S. with the Mid-South at the base of it? That could mean a very wet holiday weekend.

Until then, enjoy the week!